15" is generally what's known as short shaft, long shaft is 20", XL=25", XXL=30". But yeah there's always going to be someone who comes along and complicates the issue
Measure the height of your transom from top to bottom at the centre of the transom, the correct shaft length will be this measurement roughly. Normally the shaft length will be an inch or so shorter than the transom height
Measuring shaft length of the motor is just as you thought, cav plate to the top of the transom bracket.