A good question willk and I guess the answer is you can't know. Like you I use a fresh one when I change it and keep a spare just in case I wreck it, on the basis that it'll likely be ok to get me outa the shit in needed. I would press the blades hard down to check for any signs of perishing before fitting.
On a positive note, I've never had one fail in use, only ones with a set and scored edges to the blades after fair use. Except once when I started the engine with the pump full of ice! Fortunately Volvo Penta knew there were idiots about and provided a fail safe drive for the impeller.
What I have had, though, is dried out, inflexible seals in the rear of the pump. An easy and cheap fix after removing the pump. I always use plenty of red rubber grease on any rubbery component subject to wear and have never had subsequent failures. Also, if a seal is single lip and you can find a double lip version, fill the space between the lips with water resistant grease. I've found it's often possible to get a double lip seal just a fraction wider than the standard one and have it fit satisfactorily. As an example of this principle, I had a front crankshaft seal begin to weep early in the engine's life, I managed to get two slightly narrower ones and squeeze them both into the front cover recess with grease packing the space between them - that was more than ten years ago and all is still fine.