To go or not to go?

Rob Jones · 27 May 2005, 10:11

All,

I am planning a solo crossing to the Scillies tomorrow morning. Weather report is -

Lyme Regis to Lands End including Isles of Scilly

Issued by the Met Office at 0500 UTC on Friday 27 May 2005.

24 hour forecast:
Wind: southeast 3 or 4 veering southwest 5 to 7.
Weather: showers.
Visibility: moderate with fog patches becoming good.
Sea State: slight or moderate, becoming rough except in Lyme Bay. Issued by the Met Office at 0500 UTC on Friday 27 May 2005.

Outlook for the following 24 hours:
Wind: southwest 5 to 7 decreasing 3 or 4.
Weather: fair.
Visibility: good.
Sea State: rough, occasionally very rough in west, becoming moderate.

Would people consider this to be to rough? As you can see it varies from Force 3-7, I am planning on leaving @ 0630hrs - do you think I could get the force 3 forecast as opposed to a blasting.

I have a Tornado 5.5m which I have owned for 4 months - no previous experience prior to that but I have used the boat heaps since buying it. Made the same crossing @ Easter and Im sure that was a Force 6, but Icant remember.

Jono · 27 May 2005, 10:27

If you feel the need to ask a question about a critical safety issue like this, then I think you've answered your own question, haven't you? If you are looking for someone else to make the decision for you, you are not yet ready to make the journey, whatever it is, on your own. It is ALWAYS the right decision to pull a trip if you are not certain about the weather or your/your boat's capabilities...

Wait for a better weather window or go in experienced company.....

Cheers, Jono... (a devout coward)

Louise · 27 May 2005, 10:38

I agree 100% with Jono but just in case you are tempted to poke your nose out and give it a go, it is always worth doing a short distance then turning back to check what conditions are like in both directions, just in case you get to a point where you decide to turn back! If conditions are too bad in either direction don't even start the journey.

A couple of years ago we set out in the company of another boat to go to the Channel Islands. 20 miles out with worsening conditions we decided to turn back, only to find that conditions were actually more uncomfortable now we had turned around! We've since done the trip in perfect conditions - there's always another day!

And if, after all this, you still decide to go for it, make sure you file a passage plan with the coastguard and then remember to let them know once your journey has been completed.

Whatever you decide, have a good weekend!

Rob Jones · 27 May 2005, 10:46

Thing is my partner and daughter are actually leaving on the ferry. I feel comfortable in all but the force 7 - and thats only becuse it is a number I have not seen @ sea yet.

I suppose if it gets really hairy I could tuck in behind the ferry - or is that a big no no??

As for experience - well unless you push the envelope you will never gain any of it.

Louise · 27 May 2005, 10:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

As for experience - well unless you push the envelope you will never gain any of it.

I agree, but, as Jono says, go in experienced company.

Jimbob · 27 May 2005, 10:53

As they say "if in doubt dont go out"

Heres my view

whilst it may start as a F3 it looks as if it will build to F7, so add the tide on top of that (wind +tide), then you could end up in some very rought conditions.

I would also not generally go out on my own - i would not in these condition

For me - i would give it a miss

Rob Jones · 27 May 2005, 10:56

how much of a difference is there between Force 6 and 7?

When I made the crossing @ Easter it had rained for 24 hours prior and freezing cold. a quick scan across the sea made it look flat but the waves seemed to rise up and under me.

It felt fine though - just like driving a car up hill along a flat then down the other side. Will I ever get a situation at sea where the waves will roll over and break?

Jono · 27 May 2005, 10:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

Thing is my partner and daughter are actually leaving on the ferry. I feel comfortable in all but the force 7 - and thats only becuse it is a number I have not seen @ sea yet.

I suppose if it gets really hairy I could tuck in behind the ferry - or is that a big no no??

As for experience - well unless you push the envelope you will never gain any of it.

Rob, if you've made up your mind to go, why bother asking the question? Am I missing something? As the saying goes, "if you think you won't like the answer, don't ask the question?"

Have a safe journey

Louise · 27 May 2005, 11:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

Will I ever get a situation at sea where the waves will roll over and break?

Yes! And that's when your problems begin! If I were you I'd do the Advanced Powerboat RYA course (assuming you already have Level 2?). This will give you some practice at rough weather handling.

Rob Jones · 27 May 2005, 11:00

My attitude is somewhat more adventerous though.

When Chirstopher Columbus set of across the flat sea, all thought he was mad and was going to sail off the edge of the world.

Armed with this knowledge he managed to muster a whole bunch of lads and convinced them to go to certain death.

Of course they proved the world wrong

Scary Des · 27 May 2005, 11:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

how much of a difference is there between Force 6 and 7?

At the extremes of the band 10knots

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

When I made the crossing @ Easter it had rained for 24 hours prior and freezing cold........... a situation at sea where the waves will roll over and break?

Rain calms the sea, wind makes it rougher

and yes you can get breakers especially when it is windy. Des

Louise · 27 May 2005, 11:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

When Chirstopher Columbus set of across the flat sea, all thought he was mad and was going to sail off the edge of the world.

I bet he had more than 4 months experience though before setting out to prove the world wrong!

Richard B · 27 May 2005, 11:05

Rob,
This is a situation that needs handling with caution. You're planning a trip into open sea with an unfavorable forecast, and I guess on your own? F5-7 on the nose will make for an uncomfortable journey out, but if it decreases to F4 or F3 then that will get easier. So in principal, you should be OK. However, if you have a problem, then things may get out of hand very quickly. And if the weather doesn't improve, you could have a more serious situation than you expected.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

Outlook for the following 24 hours:
Wind: southwest 5 to 7 decreasing 3 or 4.
Weather: fair.
Visibility: good.
Sea State: rough, occasionally very rough in west, becoming moderate.

I don't like the sound of "occasionally very rough in west"

Quote:

Would people consider this to be to rough?

Over F5

Quote:

do you think I could get the force 3 forecast as opposed to a blasting.

Sorry to sound pessimistic, but it sounds like you're heading strainght into the F7 and "occasionally very rough in west".

Quote:

Made the same crossing @ Easter and Im sure that was a Force 6, but Icant remember.

Was it large waves that you climbed up, and then they towered above you when you were in the troughs?

Scary Des · 27 May 2005, 11:08

Please don’t go and kill yourself, it will put my insurance up

Des

Jono · 27 May 2005, 11:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

My attitude is somewhat more adventerous though.

When Chirstopher Columbus set of across the flat sea, all thought he was mad and was going to sail off the edge of the world.

Armed with this knowledge he managed to muster a whole bunch of lads and convinced them to go to certain death.

Of course they proved the world wrong

True, true.. but then I'm pretty sure he didn't ask a bunch of strangers if they thought it was safe to go...... and I'm also pretty sure he'd have struggled to find a group of people who had "been there, done that" to ask first anyway....so why bother asking the question if you're going to get defensive over the replies...no-one is questioning your courage, just offering friendly advice, but if you don't want to take it, because it doesn't suit you, then so be it... no skin off my nose...

<edit>...and there are times when I wish ol' Columbus had left well alone

Cheers, Jono

Richard B · 27 May 2005, 11:11

Rob, careful about this idea...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Jones

I suppose if it gets really hairy I could tuck in behind the ferry - or is that a big no no??

If it gets "really hairy" than you won't be able to sustain more than 10kts, so you won't be able to catch up with a 25kt ferry.

Jimbob · 27 May 2005, 11:19

Rob

your not Chirstopher Columbus and whilst you have a sense of adventure (we all have that why we have ribs), it seems that the consensus is DO NOT GO

I have done tons of mileage, and whilst some rough weather is good, it does not take long on your own before it feels like you against the sea,,,,,the sea will win.

Wait for a nicer day, more people have gone out in bad weather because they "needed to get somewhere",,,, boating is not like going home in you car.

Maybe I'm a whimp - but i would leave it - go have a pint...or two

or three

Scary Des · 27 May 2005, 11:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jono

...and there are times when I wish ol' Columbus had left well alone

...Cheers, Jono

Here Here Or is it Hear Hear

Des

Daniel TD5 · 27 May 2005, 11:37

Leave the boat at home and go by the nice ferry

unless your boat is set up for rough weather ie

twin engine and so on it not worth the risk

dan

Daniel · 27 May 2005, 11:44

I've a fair amount of experience and a larger boat than you ( i'm not trying to sound condasending ) i also do a lot of boating as a lone boat and have done some passages solo abord the boat.

However i would not make this trip solo in a single boat. With a crew, probabily. With another boat (even if i was solo crew) then yes.

It worth checking, however, that your insurance is valid in such a forecast this far offshore. Certianly mine stipulates you must be in the company of another baat when over 10miles ofshore in a forecast forc 6 or above.